[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 32.4W OR ABOUT 535
MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS 12/0900 UTC
MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE W
OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 33W-36W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE THAT ENCOMPASSES
THIS WAVE AND THE WAVE TO THE W IN THE E CARIBBEAN AS OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-17N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM ALONG 65W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE THAT
ENCOMPASSES THIS WAVE AND THE WAVE TO THE W IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC AS OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE ELY TRADES AS WELL
AS DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...THUS THE WAVE AXIS IS
BASED ON CONTINUITY AND IS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OR
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 11N21W 12N27W...THEN
13N37W 11N48W 14N55W 12N62W THEN OVER NE VENEZUELA TO OVER
COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. JUST OF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA IS BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG TO STRONG CONVECTION THAT
COVERS THE AREA FROM 7N-19N BETWEEN 18W-23W...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY BE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN
26W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION ACROSS EXTENDING NE ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE W BAY
OF CAMPECHE TO OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA. MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR ALSO DOMINATES THE GULF GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N E
OF 93W TO JUST INLAND OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A SEA BREEZE
INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA ACROSS NE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO 28N85W ENHANCING THE ABOVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N90W
TO 18N93W GENERATING SIMILAR ACTIVITY S OF 20N BETWEEN 93W-96W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A WEAK
1017 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR
16N81W. MOIST SLY UPPER FLOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
S OF 19N W OF 85W AND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA N
OF 16N W OF 72W. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN REGION E OF 80W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 60W
COVERING THE BAHAMAS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 30N71W AND A
SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 30N73W WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
SUPPRESSING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A PERSISTENT WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N57W TO 28N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. SIMILAR ACTIVITY ARE BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES
OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND THE E CARIBBEAN MAINLY FROM 16N-20N
BETWEEN 57W-63W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES AND THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N35W TO 26N56W.

$$
WALLACE




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