[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N31W 13N30W 8N31W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
13N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N48W 11N45W 6N45W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N65W 13N64W
8N63W MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE AREA THAT ALREADY IS COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
ALONG 24N66W 19N66W 16N67W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM JAMAICA TO 15N77W
TO 9N75W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 11N35W 8N50W INTO
NORTHWESTERN GUYANA/NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N61W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
40W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH
GOES FROM 14N34W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N38W
TO 8N41W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 36W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR CUBA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
19N93W...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THIS AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM CUBA TO 27N
TO THE EAST OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND TO THE SOUTH OF
24N TO THE WEST OF 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MAINLAND
MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA TO JAMAICA TO EASTERN HONDURAS...SOME BEING ENHANCED DUE
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO TO 21N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH
OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF 95W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA..
ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N66W
TO 24N66W 19N66W 16N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN
60W AND 70W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND PUERTO RICO.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N66W 20N68W. THIS TROUGH USED TO BE
THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL
WAVE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 16N65W TO THE PENINSULA DE
PARAGUANA OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVER
THE AREA TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 17N63W 12N70W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ORIENTED ALONG THE COUNTRIES OF CENTRAL
AMERICA IS SPREADING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 13N74W 16N82W 17N88W. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE GULF OF URABA TO 11N
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 81W...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW AND BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...AND FROM 120 NM TO 180 NM
TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N78W
IN THE PROVIDENCE CHANNEL...IN BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND GRAND
BAHAMA AND ABACO ISLAND OF THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 22N77W 26N78W 31N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N36W TO 19N46W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS TROUGH.

$$
MT








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