[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IN ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE AREA THAT ALREADY IS COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
24N66W 19N66W 16N67W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W TO THE SOUTH
OF CUBA MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN THE AREA OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS NOT EASY TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN
PRECIPITATION JUST WITH THE WAVE AND PRECIPITATION THAT JUST
IS RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE
WEST OF 75W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 13N32W 7N50W INTO
NORTHWESTERN GUYANA/NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
30W...AND FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N34W...MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR CUBA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
19N93W...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THIS AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM CUBA TO 25N
BETWEEN 80W AND 86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 75W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO TO 22N96W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS
OF 29N89W AT THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIP OF LOUISIANA.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 94W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N82W 25N85W 22N86W.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA..
ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N66W
TO 24N66W 19N66W 16N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN
62W AND 69W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND PUERTO RICO.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N64W 23N66W 19N67W. THIS TROUGH USED
TO BE THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TROPICAL WAVE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 16N65W TO THE PENINSULA DE
PARAGUANA OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVER
THE AREA TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 17N63W 12N70W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ORIENTED ALONG THE COUNTRIES OF CENTRAL
AMERICA IS SPREADING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 13N74W 16N82W 17N88W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 79W AND CENTRAL
AMERICA IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...THE 82W TROPICAL WAVE...AND ABOUT
180 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N78W
IN THE PROVIDENCE CHANNEL...IN BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND GRAND
BAHAMA AND ABACO ISLAND OF THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 22N77W 26N78W 31N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N36W TO 19N46W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS TROUGH.

$$
MT





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