[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 9N TO 15N
BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.

A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N33W...MOVING NORTHWEST
15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 32W AND
35W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
THIS WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDING TO WHAT WE DISCOVERED
24 HOURS AGO.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N58W 7N56W MOVING
WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 53W AND 60W.

WHAT USED TO BE THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NOW 18N58W-7N56W
TROPICAL WAVE IS A TROUGH ALONG 18N61W 25N63W. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IT IS NOT EASY
TO DETERMINE WHICH FEATURE IS MORE RESPONSIBLE FOR AIDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

THE 74W/75W TROPICAL WAVE FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS BEEN DROPPED
FROM THE ANALYSIS BECAUSE OF LACK OF DATA SUPPORTING ITS
EXISTENCE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 9N26W 8N37W INTO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 27N94W
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 93W. AN WEST-TO-EAST SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM JUST OFF
THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF CUBA TO JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA NEAR 19N96W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR
17N104W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
IS ON TOP OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LINE...OVER THE WATERS AND INLAND AREAS...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N TO 22N ON THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF
MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH GOES FROM 17N67W TO 15N69W TO
11N73W IN NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE AND NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH GOES FROM 32N64W TO 27N65W TO 16N68W JUST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE MONA PASSAGE. REMNANT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 17N TO THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN
THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 17N68W TO
JAMAICA TO THE BORDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
WITH BELIZE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS HELPING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
CUBA AND NEAR JAMAICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS
HELPING THE REST OF THE PRECIPITATION...TO THE WEST OF 84W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 32N62W TO 27N65W TO 16N68W JUST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MONA PASSAGE. POSSIBLE SHOWERS
FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W.

$$
MT





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