[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO
15N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 5N TO 16N. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 9N40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N54W 9N52W MOVING
WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 13N
BETWEEN 53W AND 57W.

WHAT USED TO BE THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NOW 17N54W-9N52W
TROPICAL WAVE IS A TROUGH ALONG 60W FROM 18N TO 25N. THIS
SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
IT IS NOT EASY TO DETERMINE WHICH FEATURE IS MORE RESPONSIBLE
FOR AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N MOVING
WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 13N24W...FROM 8N32W TO
10N50W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N63W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST. NO SURFACE TROUGH OR FRONT ACCOMPANIES THIS
TROUGH. AN WEST-TO-EAST SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF CUBA TO JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 19N96W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 17N104W. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR IS ON TOP OF ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE...OVER THE WATERS
AND INLAND AREAS...FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA TO 20N
ON THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH GOES FROM 17N67W TO 15N69W TO
11N73W IN NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE AND NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH GOES FROM 30N64W TO 24N66W TO 17N68W JUST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE MONA PASSAGE. REMNANT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 17N TO THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN
THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 17N68W TO
JAMAICA TO THE BORDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
WITH BELIZE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS HELPING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
CUBA AND NEAR JAMAICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS
HELPING THE REST OF THE PRECIPITATION...TO THE WEST OF 84W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 30N64W TO 24N66W TO 17N68W JUST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MONA PASSAGE. POSSIBLE SHOWERS
FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 59W AND 65W.

$$
MT





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