[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 160528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC...AND METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 5N6W AT THE COAST OF THE IVORY COAST...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 13W TO 2S20W 3S30W...AND GOING INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
1S TO 1N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 91W/92W ACROSS LOUISIANA AND THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA. WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM
20N98W TO 17N96W...AIDING SOME EARLIER SHOWERS WHICH APPEAR TO
HAVE DISSIPATED BY NOW. BROAD AND WEAK REMNANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...A FEW EARLIER SHOWERS
HAVE DISSIPATED. THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT STILL CUTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO 23.5N90W IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM NICARAGUA
TO BELIZE...INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.
BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 30N73W TO THE WATERS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS OF
THE BAHAMAS...TO SOUTH FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 20 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N70W BEYOND 32N66W.
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO
THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. THE AREA FROM 12N TO 20N
BETWEEN 40W AND 53W IS COVERED BY BROAD AND INDISTINCT MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 26N29W.
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N60W 11N45W 20N30W BEYOND THE CANARY ISLANDS.
THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP
LAYER TROUGH REACHES MOROCCO ALONG 30N TO THE EAST OF 20W.

$$
MT




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