[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 152332
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 18W
CONTINUING TO 3S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-4N BETWEEN 5W-13W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-EQ BETWEEN
15W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WHERE THE
ITCZ AXIS MEETS THE COAST OF BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER S FLORIDA AND BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING ALONG 26N82W
25N86W 22N91W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THAT HELPED
PRODUCE STRONG CONVECTION YESTERDAY HAS OUTRUN THE FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND EXTENDS
FROM 21N92W TO 18N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. A 1021 MB HIGH IS JUST OFF THE SE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE U.S.
ALOFT...A RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 92W DOMINATES THE GULF REGION.
EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD AND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST SAT
NIGHT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS OF 10-20 KTS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC REACHES CUBA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY BROAD RIDGING WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N75W AND CONTINUES SW AND
CROSSES SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH AND CONTINUES TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SECOND COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N37W AND EXTENDS SW TO 25N50W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
SECOND COLD FRONT IS EMBEDDED BETWEEN TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WHICH DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. A 1026 MB HIGH IS TO
THE W NEAR 32N49W AND THE SECOND HIGH IS TO THE E NEAR 30N30W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN PERSISTS
ACROSS THE ATLC WITH THE FIRST TROUGH LOCATED W OF 65W. THE
SECOND TROUGH AXIS IS TILTED EXTENDING FROM 32N24W TO 13N46W.

$$
WALTON/HUFFMAN





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