[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
26W AND EXTENDING TO 2S32W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S40W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 3N-4S BETWEEN 17W-27W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6S
BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. A 1025 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N62W. THERE IS A
RELATIVELY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO CENTERS PRODUCING
15-25 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH FAIR
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER S TEXAS ALONG 32N94W 30N98W
29N100W WITH NO PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 22N AND W OF 90W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E GULF. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OVER THE N GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA
TO S TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM E HISPANIOLA TO N COLOMBIA ALONG 18N69W 12N72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. MORE SHOWERS
ARE OVER PANAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS E OF 67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W AND PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N AND W OF 72W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N62W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS FURTHER E FROM 32N55W
TO 24N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE FRONT. A
1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 39N33W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N31W. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 6N10W
3N30W 8N60W. EXPECT... THE FRONT TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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