[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
26W AND EXTENDING TO 2S32W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS W
OF 19W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SFC HIGH PRES HAS SHIFTED E OF THE AREA INTO THE W ATLC. THIS
HAS ALLOWED SLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF
ADVECTING A MILDER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS THAN WHAT WAS IN PLACE
EARLIER THIS WEEK. LATEST SFC OBS AND QSCAT DATA SHOW THE
STRONGEST FLOW...20-25 KT...OVER THE MIDDLE AND WEST WATERS IN
RESPONSE TO LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING
EXTENDING S INTO MEXICO. NIGHT CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY
DENSE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND FOG OVER THE NW COASTAL WATERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER E TEXAS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ENTER THE
FAR N WATERS TODAY AND SAT BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...STRONG WLY
FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO THE
FORMATION OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NE WATERS IN A SLIGHT
DIFFLUENT ZONE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH CONTINUES WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT
CENTERED ALONG 68W N OF 13N. LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
GUADELOUPE REPORTED 1.22 INCHES OF RAIN MAINLY TIED TO THIS
TROUGH. PATCHY CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SHALLOW IN NATURE CAPPED BY
DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. E TO SE WINDS NEAR 20 KT
ARE BLOWING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE ENHANCED PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER S MEXICO AND HIGH PRES OVER THE
W ATLC. SIMILAR MAGNITUDE NE TO E WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
USUAL ENHANCED ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN THESE WIND FLOWS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS FLATTENING
PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 32N57W TO 25N65W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS. ONLY BROKEN
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
CONTINUES TO LOSE UPPER SUPPORT. A WEAK SFC RIDGE IS BUILDING E
OVER THE W ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR 28N69W. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE W ATLC BESIDES FOR SW 20 KT WINDS
NEAR BERMUDA ENHANCED BY LOW PRES N OF THE AREA. FARTHER
E...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N33W IS PRODUCING MULTILAYER
CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE
CENTER. A SW TO W UPPER JET WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 100 KT
ORIGINATES JUST E OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 9N35W TO
17N25W TO 25N15 GENERATING AND ADVECTING MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE JET AXIS.

$$
CANGIALOSI





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net