[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N15W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
27W AND EXTENDING TO 1S34W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S41W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 2W-6W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W-17W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN
19W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN
23W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SFC HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 26N95W WITH A SECONDARY CENTER
LOCATED OVER SRN MEXICO. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND A RECENT QSCAT
PASS REVEAL NW 15-20 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE ERN WATERS...DUE
TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT E OF
THE AREA. SEAS HAVE BEEN STEADILY DIMINISHING BUT STILL REMAIN
ELEVATED UP TO 10 FT OVER THE ERN WATERS. THE COOL AIRMASS IS
BEING MODIFIED OVER THE W GULF AS SLY RETURN FLOW HAS SET UP.
THIS PROCESS WILL SPREAD E THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS THE SFC
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E INTO THE W ATLC TONIGHT. IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS...A WLY JET WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 110 KT LIES
OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE REGION ONLY ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS S OF 25N. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE W COAST
OF THE U.S. WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW DRAGGING
A FRONT NEAR THE FAR NW WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL DEFINED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS. BROKEN LOW-MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT WITHIN 90 NM. N-NW 20-25 KT WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT. E OF
THE BOUNDARY...CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FAIR ENHANCED BY WIDESPREAD
STABLE AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. ALTHOUGH...THERE ARE A
FEW SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH A
REMNANT LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. TRADE WINDS ARE FAIRLY RELAXED DUE TO
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE TROUGHING N AND W OF THE AREA AND
WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...FROM 32N67W TO
E CUBA...AND AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 29N BETWEEN 65W-69W. WINDS REMAIN STRONG
ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BOUNDARY AND BASED ON A RECENT QSCAT PASS
ARE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE COLD SECTOR NEAR THE N
BORDER. FARTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 21N-26N
BETWEEN 42W-47W ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY NEAR AN UPPER LOW.
THIS UPPER FEATURE DOES HAVE A SFC CONNECTION ANALYZED AS A
TROUGH FROM 29N44W TO 21N48W. THE FLOW ALOFT IS MAINLY ZONAL
ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE
TROPICS...A SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN AFRICA IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. A 100+ KT SW TO W JET
EXTENDS FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N61W TO 19N40W TO 24N16W
GENERATING AND ADVECTING A SWATH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE JET AXIS.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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