[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 27W EXTENDING TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 6W-15W...INCLUDING INLAND OVER
LIBERIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN
20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...NOW POSITIONED OVER THE W
ATLC WATERS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN...A
1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS NEAR
27N97W ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND N-NW WINDS OF UP TO
20-25 KT RESIDE ACROSS THE ERN GULF WITH WINDS DECREASING TO
10-20 KT ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND WRN GULF. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE WRN GULF EARLY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW
GULF ON LATE FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N78W CONTINUING SW ALONG 20N80W
17N85W TO INLAND OVER N/CENTRAL HONDURAS. NLY WINDS OF UP TO 20
KT ARE OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION...FAIR CONDITIONS DOMINATE ENHANCED BY A
STRONGLY SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED
E OF 75W AND TROUGHING LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THE TRADE WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY RELAXED DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N69W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG
30N70W 25N74W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING 120 NM E OF THE FRONT
N OF 24N. STRONG WLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE
FRONT MAINLY N OF 26N. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES WITH AXIS ALONG 29N47W TO 20N53W AND SW
OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY IS GENERATING MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 43W-48W. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
MAINLY ZONAL ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. OVER THE TROPICS...A SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WITH AXIS
ALONG 10N FROM THE W AFRICA COAST TO 55W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
NEAR THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN



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