[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 25W EXTENDING TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 12W AND S OF 2N
BETWEEN 20W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY CROSSED THE ENTIRE AREA EXTENDING
FROM EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOW-MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. W OF THE FRONT...N TO NW 20-30 KT WINDS COVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...STRONGEST OVER THE SW WATERS WHERE LOCAL
TOPOGRAPHY PROVIDES AN ENHANCEMENT. THESE WINDS ARE PRODUCING
COMBINED SEAS UP TO 13 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN WATERS DUE TO
THE LONGER FETCH. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM W TO E OVER THE N
GULF WATERS TODAY AND WED...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
DIMINISH AND MODIFY THE RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SAME FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE IS MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. OVERALL LITTLE EFFECTS ARE OCCURRING OVER THAT AREA AT
THE MOMENT...BUT N WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. THE INCREASE IN WINDS COUPLED WITH N-NW SWELL FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL ELEVATE SEAS UP TO 11 FT OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY. ELSEWHERE...THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING W ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN DURING THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAS DISSIPATED OVER HISPANIOLA. FAIR CONDITIONS
DOMINATE THE REGION ENHANCED BY A STRONGLY SUBSIDENT
ENVIRONMENT...BETWEEN AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL
EPAC AND TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS
FAIRLY RELAXED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT N AND W OF THE
REGION. 20+ KT WINDS ARE CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N BETWEEN 70W
AND 75W ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STRONG
COLD FRONT FROM 32N71W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE
E OF AN UPPER JET. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE BLOWING TO
GALE FORCE WITH WINDS JUST BELOW THAT WITHIN THE COLD SECTOR.
MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 47W-53W ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY WITHIN
AN MID-UPPER TROUGH. THE FLOW ALOFT IS MAINLY ZONAL ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICAL E ATLC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE TROPICS...A
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 10N18W IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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