[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N17W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 23W EXTENDING TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 5S36W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
18W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 1N BETWEEN
26W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY CROSSED THE ENTIRE AREA EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOW-MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. W
OF THE FRONT...N TO NW 20-30 KT WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA BUT ARE LIKELY STILL GALE FORCE OVER THE SW WATERS... WHERE
LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY PROVIDES AN ENHANCEMENT. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE
PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS UP TO 13 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN
WATERS DUE TO THE LONGER FETCH. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM W TO E
OVER THE N GULF WATERS TODAY AND WED...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
QUICKLY DIMINISH AND MODIFY THE RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SAME FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE IS MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. OVERALL LITTLE EFFECTS ARE OCCURRING OVER THAT AREA AT
THE MOMENT...BUT N WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. THE INCREASE IN WINDS COUPLED WITH N-NW SWELL FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL ELEVATE SEAS UP TO 11 FT OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY. ELSEWHERE...THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING W ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN DURING THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAS DISSIPATED OVER HISPANIOLA. FAIR CONDITIONS
DOMINATE THE REGION ENHANCED BY A STRONGLY SUBSIDENT
ENVIRONMENT...BETWEEN AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL
EPAC AND TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS
FAIRLY RELAXED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT N AND W OF THE
REGION. 20+ KT WINDS ARE CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N BETWEEN 71W
AND 76W ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STRONG
COLD FRONT FROM 32N74W TO MIAMI FLORIDA AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE E
OF AN UPPER JET. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE BLOWING TO GALE
FORCE WITH WINDS JUST BELOW THAT WITHIN THE COLD SECTOR.
MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 49W-54W ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY WITHIN
AN MID-UPPER TROUGH. THE FLOW ALOFT IS MAINLY ZONAL ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICAL E ATLC ENHANCING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE TROPICS...A
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 10N18W IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ E OF 22W.

$$
CANGIALOSI





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