[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 12/1200 UTC IS NEAR 26.9N 92.2W
OR ABOUT 365 MILES...585 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND
ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 956 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 28
BETWEEN 88W AND 94W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM IKE
EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA AND PANAMA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA TO 32N IN MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO..AND TO 100W IN TEXAS AND MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 26N35W TO 22N45W 16N47W 10N50W.
PRECIPITATION EXISTS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 35W AND 43W TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF
THE 26N35W 10N50W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 67W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO PROBABLY REACHING
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND PASSING OVER CIRQUES ALSO.
THIS WAVE CONTAINS SOME ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE
THAT WAS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W SOUTH OF 14N FROM HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA SOUTHWARD...MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO DEEP ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

9N13W 6N23W 8N36W 9N50W 9N61W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE IKE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IKE IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE AREA WEST OF HAITI. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 19N
CROSSING PUERTO RICO TO THE VENEZUELA COAST. DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 300 NM ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO
PROBABLY REACHING EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND PASSING
OVER CIRQUES ALSO. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTAINS SOME ENERGY FROM THE
REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE THAT WAS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 77W
SOUTH OF 11N...FROM THE COASTAL WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE
PANAMA/COLOMBIA BORDER INTO ITS EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL
WATERS. ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO THE PANAMA
BORDER. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF THE PRECIPITATION NEAR
8N75W FROM SIX HOURS HAVE BEEN WARMING FOR THE LAST 5 HOURS.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N72W IN THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLAND TO JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI
NEAR 17N74W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 35N43W T0 32N45W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
29N53W...TO 27N68W...TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 22N72W
TO JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI NEAR 17N74W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 69W AND 70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT CONTAINS SOME
REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM PUERTO RICO TO
27N...AND IT IS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 26N35W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N43W 16N47W TO 10N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 35W AND 43W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W...IN AN
AREA OF WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE 26N35W 10N50W TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN WESTERN
ALGERIA...ACROSS MAURITANIA AND WESTERN SAHARA TO 15N18W.

$$
MT






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