[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KKEY 080623
HLSKEY

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
223 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2008

...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SURROUNDING WATERS...
...HURRICANE IKE JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA...

.AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
KEY WEST.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CUBA TODAY...AND BE
NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS
A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS
LIKELY AS IKE MOVES OVER CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...OR 27.91 INCHES.

GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-081030-
/O.CON.KKEY.HU.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
FLORIDA BAY-GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST OUT 20 NM-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
KEY WEST TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS OUT 60 NM-
223 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2008

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

UPDATED HURRICANE IKE INFORMATION FOR THE 2 AM ADVISORY.
UPDATED PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO SPECIFY BOTH CITY AND COUNTY
EVACUATION SHUTTLES AND UPDATE OPERATING TIMES.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS
TO BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE
EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IKE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS OF THE WATCH AREA.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A MANDATORY EVACUATION REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA KEYS
RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS. ANYONE NEEDING TO FIND INFORMATION ON
AVAILABLE HOTELS IN FLORIDA MAY CALL THE FLORIDA ASSISTANCE HOT
LINE AT 1-800-287-8598.

GENERAL MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS FOR FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS
REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE EVACUATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...
BEFORE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE. THE
OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY...
JUST OFF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AT U.S. ROUTE 41...TAMIAMI TRAIL...IN
MIAMI IS OPEN. THE SHELTER WILL ACCEPT PETS...AS LONG AS THEY ARE IN
APPROVED PET CARRIERS. NO SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

THE CITY OF KEY WEST EVACUATION SHUTTLE WILL RESUME OPERATION THIS
MORNING FROM 800 AM TO NOON. THIS SHUTTLE WILL TAKE RESIDENTS TO THE
MONROE COUNTY SHELTER IN MIAMI. PICK-UP LOCATIONS IN KEY WEST WILL BE
AS FOLLOWS...DOUGLASS GYM IN BAHAMA VILLAGE...KEY WEST HIGH
SCHOOL...SEARSTOWN ON NORTHSIDE DRIVE...AND BERNSTEIN PARK ON STOCK
ISLAND. MONROE COUNTY WILL ALSO OPERATE EVACUATION SHUTTLES...
DEPARTING STOCK ISLAND AT THE TOP OF EACH HOUR FROM 8 AM THROUGH 11
AM...AND MAKING STOPS AT DESIGNATED LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS UP
TO KEY LARGO. THE FINAL GREYHOUND BUS DEPARTURE FROM KEY WEST IS
SCHEDULED FOR 855 AM THIS MORNING. COMMERCIAL AIR SERVICE AT KEY WEST
AIRPORT IS SUSPENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. GENERAL AVIATION WILL
REMAIN OPEN AT BOTH KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS UNTIL SOMETIME
THIS AFTERNOON.

ALL KEYS HOSPITALS ARE CLOSED. DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK...ALONG
WITH ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS
WILL BE CLOSED TODAY AND TUESDAY. ALL COUNTY...STATE AND FEDERAL
OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED TODAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATIONS AND MAGNITUDES
OF SPECIFIC STORM TIDES TO BE CAUSED BY HURRICANE IKE. THESE WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE PRECISE STRUCTURE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT EMERGES FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST OF CUBA AND MOVES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES CALL FOR STORM TIDES OF 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TO OCCUR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MORE LIKELY IN THE LOWER KEYS. THE STORM
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR PRIMARILY FROM THE ATLANTIC SIDE. THE
FOLLOWING ARE THE EXPECTED TIMES OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES
THROUGHOUT THE KEYS...

IN KEY WEST AT WHITE STREET PIER...
4:23 AM TUESDAY...7:07 PM TUESDAY...5:39 AM WEDNESDAY

IN MARATHON AT VACA CUT...
4:05 AM TUESDAY...6:49 PM TUESDAY...5:21 AM WEDNESDAY

IN ISLAMORADA AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...
4:13 AM TUESDAY...5:13 PM TUESDAY...5:18 AM WEDNESDAY

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATION BY IKE TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN HIGHER STORM TIDE LEVELS THAN ARE
CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

...WINDS...

WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR ALL ROAD TRAVEL THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY AND HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

FOR KEY WEST...THERE IS A 72 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 19 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.

FOR MARATHON...THERE IS A 63 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 14 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.

FOR MIAMI...THERE IS A 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
74 MPH OR GREATER.

...RAINFALL IMPACTS...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS.

...TORNADOES...

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGHOUT THE
FLORIDA KEYS WITH THE PASSAGE OF HURRICANE IKE...FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

...MARINE IMPACTS...

U.S COAST GUARD OFFICIALS ARE RECOMMENDING THAT ALL BOATERS STAY OFF
THE WATER AS THE COAST GUARD HAS SCALED BACK EQUIPMENT AND PERSONNEL
ASSETS TO PREPARE FOR THE STORM...THUS THERE IS A LACK OF RESOURCES
TO RESPOND TO EMERGENCIES. SNAKE CREEK AND OLD JEWFISH CREEK
DRAWBRIDGES ARE LOCKED DOWN. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
POSTED FOR ALL WATERS SURROUNDING THE KEYS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IKE
TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED BY 600 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

$$

FLZ076>078-081030-
/O.CON.KKEY.HU.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
223 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2008

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

UPDATED HURRICANE IKE INFORMATION FOR THE 2 AM ADVISORY.
UPDATED PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO SPECIFY BOTH CITY AND COUNTY
EVACUATION SHUTTLES AND UPDATE OPERATING TIMES.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS
TO BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE
EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IKE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS OF THE WATCH AREA.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A MANDATORY EVACUATION REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA KEYS
RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS. ANYONE NEEDING TO FIND INFORMATION ON
AVAILABLE HOTELS IN FLORIDA MAY CALL THE FLORIDA ASSISTANCE HOT
LINE AT 1-800-287-8598.

GENERAL MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS FOR FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS
REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE EVACUATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...
BEFORE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE. THE
OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY...
JUST OFF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AT U.S. ROUTE 41...TAMIAMI TRAIL...IN
MIAMI IS OPEN. THE SHELTER WILL ACCEPT PETS...AS LONG AS THEY ARE IN
APPROVED PET CARRIERS. NO SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

THE CITY OF KEY WEST EVACUATION SHUTTLE WILL RESUME OPERATION THIS
MORNING FROM 800 AM TO NOON. THIS SHUTTLE WILL TAKE RESIDENTS TO THE
MONROE COUNTY SHELTER IN MIAMI. PICK-UP LOCATIONS IN KEY WEST WILL BE
AS FOLLOWS...DOUGLASS GYM IN BAHAMA VILLAGE...KEY WEST HIGH
SCHOOL...SEARSTOWN ON NORTHSIDE DRIVE...AND BERNSTEIN PARK ON STOCK
ISLAND. MONROE COUNTY WILL ALSO OPERATE EVACUATION SHUTTLES...
DEPARTING STOCK ISLAND AT THE TOP OF EACH HOUR FROM 8 AM THROUGH 11
AM...AND MAKING STOPS AT DESIGNATED LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS UP
TO KEY LARGO. THE FINAL GREYHOUND BUS DEPARTURE FROM KEY WEST IS
SCHEDULED FOR 855 AM THIS MORNING. COMMERCIAL AIR SERVICE AT KEY WEST
AIRPORT IS SUSPENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. GENERAL AVIATION WILL
REMAIN OPEN AT BOTH KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS UNTIL SOMETIME
THIS AFTERNOON.

ALL KEYS HOSPITALS ARE CLOSED. DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK...ALONG
WITH ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS
WILL BE CLOSED TODAY AND TUESDAY. ALL COUNTY...STATE AND FEDERAL
OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED TODAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATIONS AND MAGNITUDES
OF SPECIFIC STORM TIDES TO BE CAUSED BY HURRICANE IKE. THESE WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE PRECISE STRUCTURE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT EMERGES FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST OF CUBA AND MOVES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES CALL FOR STORM TIDES OF 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TO OCCUR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MORE LIKELY IN THE LOWER KEYS. THE STORM
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR PRIMARILY FROM THE ATLANTIC SIDE. THE
FOLLOWING ARE THE EXPECTED TIMES OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES
THROUGHOUT THE KEYS...

IN KEY WEST AT WHITE STREET PIER...
4:23 AM TUESDAY...7:07 PM TUESDAY...5:39 AM WEDNESDAY

IN MARATHON AT VACA CUT...
4:05 AM TUESDAY...6:49 PM TUESDAY...5:21 AM WEDNESDAY

IN ISLAMORADA AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...
4:13 AM TUESDAY...5:13 PM TUESDAY...5:18 AM WEDNESDAY

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATION BY IKE TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN HIGHER STORM TIDE LEVELS THAN ARE
CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

...WINDS...

WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR ALL ROAD TRAVEL THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY AND HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

FOR KEY WEST...THERE IS A 72 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 19 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.

FOR MARATHON...THERE IS A 63 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 14 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.

FOR MIAMI...THERE IS A 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
74 MPH OR GREATER.

...RAINFALL IMPACTS...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS.

...TORNADOES...

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGHOUT THE
FLORIDA KEYS WITH THE PASSAGE OF HURRICANE IKE...FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

...MARINE IMPACTS...

U.S COAST GUARD OFFICIALS ARE RECOMMENDING THAT ALL BOATERS STAY OFF
THE WATER AS THE COAST GUARD HAS SCALED BACK EQUIPMENT AND PERSONNEL
ASSETS TO PREPARE FOR THE STORM...THUS THERE IS A LACK OF RESOURCES
TO RESPOND TO EMERGENCIES. SNAKE CREEK AND OLD JEWFISH CREEK
DRAWBRIDGES ARE LOCKED DOWN. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
POSTED FOR ALL WATERS SURROUNDING THE KEYS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IKE
TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED BY 600 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

$$

JACOBSON





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