[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IKE MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR
CABO LUCRECIA AT 08/0145 UTC. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT
08/0600 UTC IS NEAR 21.2N 76.6W...OR JUST INLAND NEAR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS.
THIS POSITION IS 85 MILES/135 KM EAST OF CAMAGUEY. HURRICANE IKE
IS MOVING WEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
945 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 105 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 130 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 75W AND
76W. OTHER STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM
THE JAMACIA CHANNEL TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CROOKED ISLAND AND THE RAGGED ISLAND RANGE...AND
EVEN BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM 17.5N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 69W AND
70W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 18N71W...BOTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO 28N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 65W AND 82W. THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AWAY FROM IKE IS EVIDENT. A HINT
OF MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...EITHER WITH A CENTER OR
A TROUGH...IS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF HONDURAS WEST OF 80W
IS NORTHERLY. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM IKE COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 75W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN IN THE MIDDLE OF HURRICANE
IKE AND NOW WHAT USED TO BE JOSEPHINE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. APPARENT MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF
THE AREA OF THIS WAVE...SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W.

...THE ITCZ...

19N16W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 10N30W TO 9N39W
10N48W 10N56W BEYOND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTHERN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N
TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 9W AND 20W...FROM 12N TO
14N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W...FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W...
AND ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 86W FROM 26N SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNDER THIS RIDGE...AND JUST EAST OF
A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...JUST WEST OF THE RIDGE. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ALONG 25N95W 20N98W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD 20N100W IN
INTERIOR MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 94W...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
POSSIBLY NEAR SOME AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A HINT OF MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...EITHER WITH A CENTER OR
A TROUGH...IS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF HONDURAS WEST OF 80W
IS NORTHERLY. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM IKE COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 75W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. APPARENT MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
AREA OF THIS WAVE...SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N49W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N54W 16N58W TO 14N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.
THE 1012 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF JOSEPHINE IS NEAR
18N43W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 20N
BETWEEN 41W AND 43W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N18W
TO 31N21W 29N28W TO 25N32W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM TO 60 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N20W TO 30N23W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 30W AND
65W...AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 36N49W.

$$
MT

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