[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 060 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF A
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH. ITCZ SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE BUT PROBABLY ARE NOT
RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 10N TO 19N
BETWEEN 50W AND 57W AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE APPARENT
IN THE SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY.

...THE ITCZ...
8N12W 6N26W 9N42W 8N60W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
8N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 12W AND 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...AND
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS GIVING
THE NECESSARY ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT TO A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
26N77W...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AROUND WESTERN CUBA...
INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO 18N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N81W 22N85W 20N86W 18N87W. OTHER ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W...
AROUND AND/OR ON TOP OF NICARAGUA/EL SALVADOR/HONDURAS. THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS RECEIVING THE ARRIVAL OF
A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BE READY FOR COMPARATIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES.
A GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA MINUS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE...
EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...NORTH OF
HONDURAS WEST OF 83W. A BIT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF PANAMA
BETWEEN 80W AND 85W MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA
BORDER AND 90W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 26N45W TO 21N50W
15N54W TO TRINIDAD. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT STOPS
AT 31N42W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N42W TO 26N43W TO 20N50W
AND 19N59W. A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL IS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH NEAR 19N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE TROUGH FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 49W AND 56W...AND
FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 46W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 41W AND 42W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN ALGERIA TO MOROCCO AND
WESTERN SAHARA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MAURITANIA.

$$
MT


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