[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH. STRONG ITCZ
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W
PROBABLY ARE NOT RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 10N TO 19N
BETWEEN 50W AND 56W AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE APPARENT
IN THE SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY.

...THE ITCZ...
9N14W 6N25W 10N40W 7N46W 9N54W 8N60W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W...AND
FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W. STRONG
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AFRICA COAST WITHIN LESS THAN A 15 NM
RADIUS OF 7N12W AND 9.5N15W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...AND
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS GIVING
THE NECESSARY ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT TO A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 28N73W TO 25N80W IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO WESTERN CUBA...TO THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL
OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 19N87W 21N86W 22N85W 23N83W 23N81W 22N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N73W 28N70W BEYOND
31N68W. THE GULF OF MEXICO AWAITS THE ARRIVAL OF A RE-ENFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT NOW RUNS FROM
EAST TEXAS TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA MINUS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE...
EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...NORTH OF
HONDURAS WEST OF 82W. A BIT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF PANAMA
BETWEEN 80W AND 85W MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 25N47W TO 20N44W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO
31N42W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N42W TO 26N44W TO 21N50W AND
20N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO THUNDERSTORMS FROM
18N TO 21N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS NORTH
OF 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS
FROM MOROCCO AND WESTERN SAHARA AND MAURITANIA. AN UPPER LEVEL
ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EXTENDS FROM 20N19W TO
25N26W.

$$
MT


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