[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261019
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH A BROAD AREA
OF INVERTED-V CURVATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 24W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 41W WAS RELOCATED ALONG 50W S OF
16N BASED ON LONG TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY STABLE AIR BUT WITH BROAD
INVERTED-V CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 15N MOVING W 5 KT. THE NORTH
PORTION OF THE WAVE REMAINS IN AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY/STABLE AIR WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS UNDER UPPER
DIFFLUENCE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N16W 10N24W 9N41W 11N51W 10N62W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 21W-31W AND FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 31W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND N GULF BRINGING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR TO THE AREA N OF LINE FROM
CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLC INTO THE GULF OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 22N86W WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
GULF ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA/
MISSISSIPPI. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF A LINE FROM FORT MYERS
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 22N88W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS MORNING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
DEW POINTS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE
GULF HONDURAS EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W
ATLC AND COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SHEAR AXIS
EXTENDS INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES JUST
N OF GRENADA TO THE ABC ISLANDS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FAR NW CARIBBEAN NW OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO THE YUCATAN
NEAR 19N87W AND OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF THE SHEAR AXIS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN ON
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS MAINLY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
16N W OF 76W. THE ITCZ CROSSES THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN FROM
COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE FAR W ATLC NEAR 32N76W
EXTENDING S ALONG 25N79W THEN W ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 57W AND PROVIDING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W TO 20N49W THEN AS A SHEAR AXIS
W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES JUST N OF
GRENADA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N45W ALONG 25N47W TO
21N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
150/180 NM THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF 52W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS
JUST TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING THE ABOVE ACTIVITY.
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF
23N FROM 50W-75W. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR
24N32W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING S OVER THE W AFRICA E OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NARROWING THE UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN ALONG 22W. A
SECOND SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 40W
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE



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