[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260529
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH A BROAD AREA
OF INVERTED-V CURVATURE. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 25W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 14N29W TO 12N34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK AND
NARROW INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 4N40W TO 5N43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS
IN AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR THUS
LIMITING ANY SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N15W 8N25W 7N45W 9N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM
35W-37W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE AREA FROM
3N-8N BETWEEN 16W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND NW GULF BRINGING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR TO THE AREA W OF LINE FROM
PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLC INTO THE GULF NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO N COAST OF THE YUCATAN
NEAR 22N88W WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF WATERS
AND OVER S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE GULF LATE SUN/EARLY MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE
GULF HONDURAS EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W
ATLC AND COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SHEAR AXIS
EXTENDS INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR
ST. LUCIA TO THE ABC ISLANDS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN NW OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N82W TO THE YUCATAN NEAR
19N88W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS USHERED IN ON MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS MAINLY IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE FAR W ATLC NEAR 32N77W
EXTENDING S ALONG 27N79W THEN W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC W
OF 60W AND PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N W OF 74W TO OVER S
FLORIDA. A NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 32N52W TO 21N50W THEN AS A SHEAR AXIS W INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR ST. LUCIA. THE
DISSIPATING ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N44W EXTENDING ALONG 23N52W TO 21N68W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N47W TO 19N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 21N49W TO BEYOND
32N43W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ENHANCING THE ABOVE ACTIVITY. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD S OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N FROM 50W-75W. A CUT
OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 24N32W AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE TO THE E TO 27N E OF 28W TO OVER W AFRICA. A SECOND
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 45W ANCHORED BY A
1033 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE


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