[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD LOW TO
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N37W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE MAINLY E OF THE LOW CENTER
FROM 7N-17N BETWEEN 25W-38W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WNW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 21N MOVING W AT 10 KT. CYCLONIC
TURNING IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-67W...AND FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
55W-65W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-20N BETWEEN 85W-93W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 8N20W 12N30W 8N55W 11N62W. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 40W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE ERN GULF
OF MEXICO ALONG 29N80W 27N82W 25N87W WITH NO PRECIPITATION.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 90W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FURTHER N FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 92W-98W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 88W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N80W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 88W TO INCLUDE FLORIDA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF N OF 23N. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN GULF
OF MEXICO AND S FLORIDA S OF 25N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 8N-13N
BETWEEN 70W-75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE
COAST OF HAITI FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 72W-74W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL NLY FLOW OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 82W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N68W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IS E OF 80W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE SLOWLY W WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
32N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
NRN BAHAMAS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 76W-79W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N47W 27N48W 25N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 42W-47W. A 1021 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N31W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.
A 1006 MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N12W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF
72W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
28N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
30N50W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
10N27W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IS E OF 45W.

$$
FORMOSA






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