[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD LOW TO
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N36W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
11N-16N BETWEEN 27W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 35W-37W. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WNW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE IS MOVING BENEATH WEAK UPPER TROUGHING AND AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 21N MOVING W AT 10 KT. CYCLONIC
TURNING IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 60W-64W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MAINLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 84W-89W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 9N20W 12N30W 8N55W 10N62W. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 39W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 28N80W 26N82W 24N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S
FLORIDA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 90W-98W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 88W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N80W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 88W TO INCLUDE FLORIDA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF N OF 23N. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 78W-82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 70W-75W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA
FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 77W-79W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS
PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL NLY FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA W OF 82W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO
RICO NEAR 18N68W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 80W. EXPECT
THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE SLOWLY W WITH CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
32N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO S FLORIDA
ALONG 30N78W 28N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
NRN BAHAMAS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 77W-80W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N46W 28N50W 25N60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 57W-60W. A 1027 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N28W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N
AND W OF 72W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 28N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 30N50W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
10N27W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IS E OF 45W.

$$
FORMOSA



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