[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270510
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 7N20W 9N40W 8N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 20W-25W...
FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN 31W-38W...AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 40W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
29N84W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. 5-10 KT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH 70-90 KT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
28N81W IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1010 MB LOW REMAINS OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 77W-80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER E OVER LAKE
MARACAIBO VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 70W-72W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND JAMAICA. FRESH
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION WITH
AXIS ALONG 60W. EXPECT... CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W TO
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N. A 1003 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N46W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS W TO A TRIPLE
POINT AT 33N39W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO
30N34W 25N33W 15N45W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE TRIPLE
POINT TO 33N30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E
OF THE COLD AND OCCLUDED FRONTS FROM 17N-30N BETWEEN
25W-34W...AND FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 30W-37W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 65W.
A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N44W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 23N-35N BETWEEN
30W-50W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC.
EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE N AND W OF THE LOW
CENTER.

$$
FORMOSA




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