[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 262357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N14W 9N20W 8N30W 9N40W 11N50W
AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN
17W-0W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 38W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N95W TO 22N92W MARKS A
LINE OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE WEST GULF...REMNANTS OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT TRAVERSED THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AS OF 21Z...A 1021 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N85W. LIGHT TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COVER THE
GULF. EXPECT THE HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN CENTERED ON A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW OVER PANAMA NEAR
9N78W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS SURFACE LOW COUPLED WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 69W AND THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA. THE NW CARIBBEAN REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUD FREE UNDER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. N TO NE WINDS 15-20 KTS BLANKET THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDS A COLD
FRONT INTO THE W ATLC. AS OF 21Z...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N65W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N68W TO
25N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND 80 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FURTHER EAST...A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 29N48W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
THROUGH 32N45W TO 30N39W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT
ALONG 31N33W TO 27N28W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS TRIPLE
POINT ALONG 26N37W TO 15N47W WHERE IT CONTINUES INTO THE TROPICS
AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 10N53W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT TO 23W NORTH OF 17N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT BETWEEN
29W-41W SOUTH OF 35N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC EAST OF 37W IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED N OF
THE AZORES AND EXTENDS A RIDGE WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS S TO
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
WADDINGTON





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