[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND SLIGHT CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS NOTED IN THE CLOUD FIELD S OF 14N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN
45W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE IS QUICKLY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DOMINANT NE SURFACE
FLOW ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH LIES FROM WRN HISPANIOLA
THROUGH JAMAICA TO COASTAL COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S
OF 12N BETWEEN 73W-78W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N13W 9N30W 9N49W 9N54W 10N61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 33W-39W AND
FROM 11N15N BETWEEN 42W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF
REGION. THIS WESTERLY FLOW IS A COMBINATION OF THE TAIL END OF A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC WATERS AND
FLOW LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SRN MEXICO WITH AN E-W ORIENTED AXIS ALONG
15N. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
GULF WATERS NEAR THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDS
NW THROUGH 22N90W TO NEAR MATAGORDA BAY ALONG THE TEXAS GULF
COAST. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE SRN GULF
MAINLY S OF 25N WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 21N IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR NEW
ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN GULF
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS NW HAITI SW
THROUGH JAMAICA TO 10N83W NEAR COASTAL COSTA RICA. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE W ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS ERN
CUBA AND THE YUCATAN BASIN IN THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 78W-83W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY
UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN
VENEZUELA TO 15N75W AND WESTWARD TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SRN
MEXICO ALONG 15N. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N AND E OF 71W. AN AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE SRN WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND TOBAGO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 23N70W TO THE CAICOS
ISLANDS AND ACROSS ERN CUBA. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N58W TO 25N64W TO NW HAITI AND IS QUICKLY BEING
ABSORBED BY THE NEARBY APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
200 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND N OF 28N. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 28N46W. ANOTHER 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
31N42W. THESE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE PART OF THE SAME DEEP
LAYERED CYCLONIC SYSTEM THAT HAS PERSISTED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
OCEAN FOR THE LAST WEEK OR SO. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDED
ALONG 29N45W 27N45W TO 27N50W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE ERN ATLC E OF 35W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SWD
ALONG 25W TO JUST NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
HUFFMAN




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