[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE CURVING FROM
15N49W TO 10N51W TO 5N51W. THE WAVE POSITION HAD TO BE ADJUSTED
FROM THE LAST MAP ANALYSIS IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL IS NEAR
17.5N75W. BROAD SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED
IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.

...THE ITCZ...
10N12W 9N30W 9N49W 9N53W 7N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 28W AND
40W...AND FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
THIS WESTERLY FLOW IS A COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL WESTERLY FLOW
AT THE TAIL END OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR U.S.A. AND SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONTS THAT
HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE AREA...AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT EMANATES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND MOVES
ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE CROOKED ISLAND PASSAGE IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR
23N75W TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W
TO THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN HAITI TO
EASTERN JAMAICA TO 16N80W TO COSTA RICA NEAR 9N84W. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE
MAIN SUPPORT TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE LINE FROM EASTERN HONDURAS
TO JAMAICA BEYOND NORTHERN HAITI. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
14N71W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM VENEZUELA TO 17N
BETWEEN 66W AND 73W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
12N TO 13N BETWEEN 66W AND 67W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE
VENEZUELA COAST TO 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 73W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW MAY BE ENHANCING THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 25N70W TO THE CROOKED
ISLAND PASSAGE IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N59W TO 24N66W TO
NORTHWESTERN HAITI. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N56W TO 25N64W TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SAME 32N56W 25N64W LINE NORTH OF 26N.
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N42W. A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N46W. THESE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE
PART OF THE SAME DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC SYSTEM THAT HAS PERSISTED
IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE LAST WEEK OR SO. A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ALSO ALONG 22N35W 26N33W 31N35W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 28W AND 40W.

$$
MT


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