[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N10W 5N19W 10N43W 8N60W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 53W/54W FROM 11N TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 12N46W TO 10N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM
32W-46W AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 45W-47W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 15W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N96W COVERING THE
W GULF N OF 21N W OF 92W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS. A WEAK
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS S GEORGIA INTO THE GULF OVER
PENSACOLA FLORIDA EXTENDING ALONG 29N89W TO A 1007 MB LOW ALONG
THE COAST OF TEXAS BETWEEN GALVESTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI WITH A
1006 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE AND A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING S ALONG 24N96W TO TAMPICO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 22N W OF 90W. RETURN
FLOW OVER THE E GULF AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE W ATLC IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N BETWEEN
84W-90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE S CARIBBEAN REMAINS
TRANQUIL THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER COSTA
RICA COVERING THE AREA W OF 80W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N
ACROSS CUBA COVERING PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W
ATLC. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 16N67W ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO
THE W ATLC GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
68W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 75W TO
INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR BUT ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOT MOST OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS THE AXIS N
OVER THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BEYOND 32N77W COVERING PORTIONS
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC W OF A LINE FROM 29N68W TO
22N78W. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NW ATLC ANCHORED WELL N
OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO
RICO COVERING THE AREA FROM 13N-25N BETWEEN 58W AND THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE FAR W ATLC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
25N64W ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 60W-68W
INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS PUSHING
S OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N FROM 34W-55W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE REGION ALONG
32N46W 30N53W TO 30N59W. HOWEVER...WITH THE MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
TO THE E ALONG 32N36W TO 24N38W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 34W-37W.
WESTERLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLC. A SECOND
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 25N E OF 30W ANCHORED WELL
N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE





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