[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N12W 7N30W 10N40W 7N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 49W-54W AND
WITHIN 45 NM OF 5N FROM 17W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM
32W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING FROM ACROSS S TEXAS COVERING THE W GULF
FROM 21N-29N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS. A
WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS S GEORGIA/SE
ALABAMA INTO THE GULF OVER PENSACOLA FLORIDA EXTENDING ALONG
28N89W TO A 1009 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N96W WITH
THE FRONT CONTINUING TO MENANDER S ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS
AND MEXICO TO VERACRUZ. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
ALONG 25N96W TO 22N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE W OF A LIEN FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA ALONG 25N92W TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
THE E GULF ALONG 86W FROM 24N-28N WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF A
WEAK SURFACE LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN
84W-86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR COVERING THE SE GULF LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
CENTRAL PANAMA COVERING THE AREA W OF 79W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS N ACROSS CUBA COVERING PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 16N64W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
INTO THE W ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 66W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND
82W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR BUT ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS DOT MOST OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS THE AXIS N
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COVERING PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC W OF 76W. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE NW ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS COVERING THE AREA FROM 12N-26N BETWEEN
58W-75W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N62W TO 16N64W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-25N
BETWEEN 58W-66W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS PUSHING S OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N FROM
35W-55W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N PORTION OF
THE REGION ALONG 32N48W 30N57W TO 31N62W. HOWEVER...WITH THE
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A REMNANT
SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E ALONG 38W/39W FROM 22N-31N WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
25N-30N BETWEEN 34W-37W. WESTERLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLC. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N
OF 25N E OF 30W ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE




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