[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N13W 7N20W 9N42W 6N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM
7N30W TO 9N38W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 39W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAIN OVER THE
GULF IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED JUST S OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO
OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES AND COUPLED WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE SURFACE RIDGE IS GIVING THE THE FAR NW GULF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 93W TO
INLAND OVER E TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS
FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER W CUBA E OF 82W. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
NEAR 13N71W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION JUST S OF PANAMA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 10N TO THE COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 80W-83W. AT THE
SURFACE...THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE E
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER EASTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
11N65W 15N70W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N68W
EXTENDING N OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO ALONG THE S FLORIDA COAST
NEAR MIAMI AND OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIPS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 25N FROM 66W-78W. A 1011 MB
LOW...REMNANTS OF PALOMA...IS ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR
22N78W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N OVER THE BAHAMAS TO
25N75W BUT IS ONLY ABLE GENERATING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 26N W OF 76W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE NE TO BEYOND 32N56W PROVIDING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 70W-76W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N40W SW ALONG 21N50W
CONTINUING S INTO THE TROPICS TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 14N53W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
25N47W TO 17N54W WITH A CUT OFF 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED
NEAR 31N37W. ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND E OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN
34W-37W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE E ATLC ANCHORED
NEAR 10N28W PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N49W
16N49W TO 20N48W AS WELL AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 20N48W 27N31W OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 27N12W. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE AREA OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE



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