[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N10W 7N29W 9N47W 8N60W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE
ITCZ FROM 32W-38W AND WITHIN 150/180 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM
31W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN
GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAIN OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE
OF A RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF
ANCHORED JUST S OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE N GULF AND
COUPLED WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE IS GIVING THE
THE FAR NW GULF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
26N BETWEEN 93W-96W TO INLAND OVER E TEXAS. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
NEAR 13N71W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION JUST S OF PANAMA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N TO
THE COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 80W-83W. AT THE SURFACE...THE W
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
EASTERLY FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM JAMAICA SW TO W PANAMA AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 15N69W
TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N68W
EXTENDING N OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO INLAND ACROSS S FLORIDA
NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE TO FORT MYERS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIPS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 68W TO THE US E COAST.
A 1010 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF PALOMA...IS ALONG THE N COAST OF
CUBA NEAR 22N78W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS TO 26N76W BUT IS ONLY ABLE GENERATING LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 29N W OF 75W AND S OF A LINE FROM 29N76W
TO JUST ALONG THE COAST OF SE FLORIDA FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO
THE UPPER KEYS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC ACROSS THE E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W NE TO
BEYOND 32N57W PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM OFF
THE CUBA COAST NEAR 22N76W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ALONG 26N70W TO
32N64W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
THROUGH 32N40W SW ALONG 24N47W INTO THE TROPICS TO AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 16N53W CONTINUING S TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
6N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N42W TO 18N54W WITH A CUT
OFF 1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N37W. ISOLATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE LOW. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE ENTIRE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 10N30W PROVIDING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N51W TO 19N48W AS WELL AS MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM
19N51W 26N35W OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF AFRICA
NEAR 28N12W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC WITH A
WEAKNESS IN THE AREA OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE




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