[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020529
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N12W 6N24W 5N36W 6N50W 7N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 11W-15W...
WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 19W-29W...WHICH ALSO
IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER SW ALABAMA NEAR 31N88W...WITH UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THIS LOW RESULTING IN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF...WITH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE
S GULF. AFTER MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE N GULF...COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND TEMPORARILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY AS IT IS
APPROACHED BY AN UPPER RIDGE TO ITS WEST. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE GULF REGION.
THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE SE CONUS. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE
IS RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG N TO NE SURFACE WINDS ARE BLOWING
THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS
IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
CENTERED NEAR 14N66W COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. DEEP MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE W OF THE UPPER HIGH ARE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-20N
BETWEEN 75W-84W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N74W TO 17N80W TO 12N84W. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
E OF THE UPPER HIGH IS RESULTING IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN. ALSO...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING INTO THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH
OF THE W ATLC...WHERE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENT. AT THE
SAME TIME...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SE CONUS...IS RESULTING IN
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE W ATLC. FARTHER TO THE E...A
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N52W TO 26N61W TO E CUBA
NEAR 20N74W. DEEP MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. ALSO...THE DEEP MOISTURE IS INTERACTING WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SW OF A MAXIMUM IN MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND
SPEED OVER THE W ATLC TO RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 74W-81W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF S FLORIDA. FARTHER TO
THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N36W TO 21N44W TO 8N52W. NEAR
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TWO
SURFACE TROUGHS ARE PRESENT. ONE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
22N57W TO 17N55W TO 12N53W. THE OTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 15N46W TO A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW AT 12N46W TO 10N46W...WITH
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 43W-46W.
FARTHER TO THE E...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS N OF 25N E OF 27W...
WHICH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W
COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 24N15W TO 25N24W TO 31N32W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT
W OF 21W. OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN EAST-TO-WEST UPPER RIDGE
IS ALONG 13N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND 42W. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE NEAR THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 28W-42W.

$$
COHEN

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