[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT NOV 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N13W 5N25W 13N46W 9N56W 9N61W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM 5N IN LIBERIA TO 8N IN SIERRA
LEONE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 32W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
43W/44W FROM 10N TO 18N. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 7N TO 20N BETWEEN 26W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA NEAR 31N88W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS
SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF WATERS. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO NORTHERN
GUATEMALA/BELIZE TO SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS AND SOUTHERN PANAMA.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GALE WIND
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO. EXPECT GALE WIND CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ADVANCING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AROUND
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER/TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
IS BRUSHING UP AGAINST UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 65W AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER.
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ARE HELPING TO GENERATE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 76W AND 85W. THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE COMPARATIVELY
COLDEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
FROM 10N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 80W AND 81.5W. STRONG CELLS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W IN BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A TROUGH
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD...ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA...
TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA JUST SOUTH OF THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER. BROAD AND NOT PRONOUNCED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IN DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS MOSTLY EAST OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD...
BEYOND THE WESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N50W
28N56W 24N66W TO INTERIOR CUBA NEAR 21N78W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N37W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO 20N45W TO 6N51W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA SOUTH OF 25N EAST OF 46W...TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE 30N37W CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST OF THE 30N37W CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH NORTH OF 20N
EAST OF 25W.

$$
MT



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