[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL
DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE AHEAD OF A SURGE COMING OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 2N-8N 26W-32.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 8N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW
AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH ANY CONVECTION EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS THAT COVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 83W/84W BETWEEN 13N-20N MOVING
NW 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE AND CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAVE MOVING OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND BEING FORCED NW BY TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
OFF THE W COAST OF COSTA RICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 5N18W 2N23W 5N30W 4N52W. LARGE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE THE EQUATOR
3N-8N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 23W INCLUDING THE COAST OF
SW AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 24W-26W AND BETWEEN
31W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75
NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MEXICO INTO THE GULF W OF 93W
ANCHORED OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO. A NARROW INVERTED UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR TAMPA. THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR NW OF A LINE FROM FORT MYERS
FLORIDA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO THE SE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
82W-87W AND S OF 22N INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 91W-96W.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF FROM THE W ATLC TO
E TEXAS WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RATHER CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES AS WELL AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN
THE E PACIFIC OFF THE W COAST OF COSTA RICA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E IN THE E PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO
GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 12N-17N W OF 74W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER THE AREA S
OF THE GREATER ANTILLES W OF 73W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA NW THROUGH
PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 67W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N59W TO 25N63W THEN A EXTENDING A SHEAR AXIS
S OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. A REMNANT
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N62W ALONG 27N70W TO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N77W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR...THUS NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM OVER THE BAHAMAS S TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN
72W-80W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE BROADER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 32N51W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG THE W EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N59W ALONG
27N63W TO 23N67W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N AND
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 62W AND THE TROUGH AXIS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 31N29W SW ALONG 24N35W INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 8N55W. THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ARE
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 20N W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH NEAR 32N42W. A WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS THE N GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A  A 1021 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N70W. THE RESULT IS CALM WEATHER FOR THE ATLC E OF
55W.

$$
WALLACE





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