[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH A MID LEVEL LOW ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. SMALL CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N
BETWEEN 23W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG ALONG 40W/41W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH ANY CONVECTION
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS THAT COVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
17N-20N FROM OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ANY DEEP CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENZUELA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 82W/83W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR
15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE AND DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAVE APPROACHING CENTRAL
AMERICA AND A NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THAT IS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF COSTA RICA...INDICATING THAT THIS WAVE WILL BE
ABSORBED BY THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N15W 7N24W 3N35W 2N51W AND
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 11N73W TO 13N81W. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 4N15W ACROSS THE ITCZ
TO 7N13W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 8W AND THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 10W-21W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 28W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N W OF 34W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF A LINE FROM SE
LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO ANCHORED OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO.
A NARROW INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W. THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR N OF A LINE FROM
FORT MYERS FLORIDA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE SE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA S OF 26N BETWEEN 81W-86W AND S OF 22N INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BETWEEN 90W-95W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
N GULF FROM THE W ATLC TO E TEXAS WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RATHER CLEAR AGAIN
TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME VERY ACTIVE TONIGHT DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES AS WELL AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE E
PACIFIC OFF THE W COAST OF COSTA RICA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO
GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER
THE AREA S OF 20N W OF 70W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS N OF 20N W OF
80W ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N60W TO 26N64W THEN A EXTENDING A SHEAR AXIS
S OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. A REMNANT
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N63W ALONG 27N69W TO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N76W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR...THUS NO SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OVER THE BAHAMAS S TO OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES BETWEEN 70W-78W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BROADER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NNE TO BEYOND 32N52W. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE W EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM 30N59W ALONG 27N61W TO 24N66W WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE
TROUGH AXIS N OF 27N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COVERING THE AREA FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 60W AND THE TROUGH AXIS.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 31N29W SW ALONG
23N36W INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 13N52W. THE E AND CENTRAL
ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 20N W OF 60W WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE BRIDGING THE SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE W ATLC
ACROSS THE N GULF OF MEXICO ALL ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
33N44W. THE RESULT IS CALM WEATHER FOR THE ATLC E OF 55W.

$$
WALLACE




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