[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS IS NOT EASY TO FIND IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 23N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 6N51W 7N54W 14N58W...AND FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN
55W AND 59W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF
19N IN HAITI...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO EASILY IDENTIFIABLE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

..THE ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA AT 6N11W TO 5N20W...CROSSING THE ITCZ NEAR 36W...
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN
6W AND 7W...FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 21W AND 22W...FROM 3N TO 4N
BETWEEN 22W AND 23W...FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 25W AND 26W...AND
FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 20W AND 21W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 30W...FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN
35W AND 40W...AND SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 16N
WEST OF 70W...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR NEAR 31N66W TO A SECOND AND COMPARATIVELY SMALLER-SIZED
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 24N71W...TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER IN CUBA
NEAR 21N77W...AND TO A FOURTH CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 16N80W IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE TROUGH...PASSING
THROUGH 31N60W TO 27N65W TO 25N70W...TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR
20N74W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 20N74W TO 19N76W AND 19N79W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER MEXICO NEAR
24N103W. A HIGH LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP
OF THE 24N103W CYCLONIC CENTER. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 89W. A SEPARATE AREA OF HIGH
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
EAST OF 90W...AS DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALONG THE FRINGES
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND THE FOUR CYCLONIC CENTERS AND THE
TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORES
OF CUBA...AND INTERIOR CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 31N BETWEEN 57W AND 71W. LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N80W
24N85W 28N88W MOVING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWESTWARD.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...TO THE EAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA NEAR 11N81W. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS WEST OF THE CENTER
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N81W
TO 11N82W. THE 57W/58W TROPICAL WAVE MAY REACH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BASED ON ITS
CURRENT MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
EXTENDS FROM A 28N36W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 17N46W
10N48W...AND MAYBE TOWARD THE ITCZ NEAR 4N48W. DRY AIR/
SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 240 NM TO 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 22N66W 26N59W BEYOND 31N47W.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD...TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA SOUTH OF 31N...AND THEN MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWIND
FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY EAST OF 75W.

$$
MT


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