[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG ALONG 29W/30W S OF 8N BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS. THIS WAVE APPEARS
TO ONLY MOVED 2 DEGREES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WHICH MAKES THE
VALIDITY QUESTIONABLE. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 23N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WELL
DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE
ENHANCING THIS TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 6N50W TO 21N57W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 8N19W 6N20W 2N38W 1N51W AND
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 12N74W ACROSS COSTA RICA/PANAMA
NEAR 9N83W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ AXIS FROM 20W-28W. CLUSTERS
OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 3N12W
3N20W TO 5N24W AND FROM THE EQUATOR THE THE SW COAST OF AFRICA
BETWEEN 1W-8W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 28W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE E GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLC. THIS COMBINED IS GIVING MOST OF THE GULF NORTHERLY UPPER
FLOW. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE NE GULF FROM THE W
ATLC WITH A EQUALLY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE W FLORIDA COAST
ALONG 84W FROM 24N-30N GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 84W
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RATHER CLEAR THIS
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC COVERING THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 64W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY
FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE CLOSE TO
THE CUBA TO THE NW COAST OF JAMAICA WHERE IS DISSIPATES TO THE W
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AN AREA N OF 17N BETWEEN
69W-80W WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
FRONT. THE WESTERN UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN
AND COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF DENSE CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 61W INTO THE E
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY
FRONT MEANDERING ALONG 32N59W 27N65W 24N71W INTO THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS 24N-28N. A SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO.
NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE VENZUELA ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N54W. LARGE UPPER LOW
IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N35W WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 14N48W ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W/57W.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC E OF 20W TO OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING SE/NW FROM 21N31W ALONG 25N36W TO 26N42W WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
OTHERWISE THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 15N E OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION
AND SW OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE



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