[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231014
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL ROTATION IS ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 6N. AREA OF
DENSE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
3N-9N BETWEEN WAVE AXIS AND 30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAKENING
LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ALONG THE N COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF GUYANA E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-15 BETWEEN 82W-85W.

..THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 7N24W 5N32W 4N40W 4N52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N
BETWEEN 11W-18W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE SW COAST OF AFRICA E
OF 10W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 5N W OF 45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 86W WITH A
SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM 28N87W TO NE MISSISSIPPI. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW AND SURFACE SYSTEM IS INLAND OVER THE
CENTRAL US. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
INTO THE W ATLC GIVING MOST THE GULF SW UPPER FLOW. THIS UPPER
RIDGE AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE A SQUALL LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA NEAR
30N84W TO 28N89W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 27N E OF 89W
TO OVER THE FLORIDA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF IS
BANKING SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NW GULF WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA/TEXAS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
E GULF S OF 27N E OF 87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL PANAMA NW TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W. AN
UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 78W WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE SAME AREA LIMITING
CLOUDS AND ANY CONVECTION. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
DOMINATE THE AREA USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
MAINLY N OF 15N...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE NW ATLC
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DIPPING INTO THE N PERIPHERY OF
THE REGION THROUGH BERMUDA TO 30N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 31N. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 30N W
OF 50W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 28N W OF 60W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-50W AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC EXTENDING
ALONG 10W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 33N39W PROVIDING THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS.

$$
WALLACE





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