[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230455
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL ROTATION IS ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 7N. AREA OF
DENSE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WEAKENING LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ALONG
THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 7.5N55W TO 8.5N58W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 12N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.

..THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 6N20W 7N27W 3N36W 1N51W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA WITHIN 95 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE/GUINEA FROM
7N-9.5N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE ITCZ
AXIS TO 5N W OF 45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE SW COAST OF
AFRICA E OF 13W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW GULF N OF 23N W OF 89W WITH A
SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA TO ARKANSAS. THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE SYSTEM IS WELL INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL US.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF INTO THE W
ATLC GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY SW UPPER FLOW. THIS UPPER RIDGE AND
THE SHORTWAVE OVER LOUISIANA IS PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
N/CENTRAL GULF N OF 28N FROM 86W-90W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N E OF 86W TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF IS
BANKING SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25 TO INLAND
OVER W LOUISIANA AND TEXAS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W PANAMA NW TO W CUBA DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
E OF 77W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE SAME
AREA LIMITING CLOUDS AND ANY CONVECTION. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS MAINLY N OF 14N E OF 74W...OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE NW ATLC
WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT CLIPPING THE N PERIPHERY OF
THE REGION. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC S OF 32N W OF 50W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING ENOUGH
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE REGION N OF 30N BETWEEN 60W-67W AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
120 NM OF LINE FROM 31N67W OVER N FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH.
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-50W
AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC EXTEND ALONG 16W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N39W PROVIDING THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS.

$$
WALLACE




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