[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211025
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. MIMIC TPW
ANIMATION SHOWS THE POSSIBLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE BUT THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL ROTATION NEAR
7N18W. ANY CONVECTION IS 3WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH A MID LEVEL ROTATION
NEAR 5N51W IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
47W-51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA FROM 46W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION INLAND AS WELL.

..THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 2N30W 4N50W. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 16W-19W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 15W-24W AND FROM 9N TO S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 35W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE GULF TO
ALONG THE N GULF COAST WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE E
US INTO THE NW ATLC AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
GEORGIA TO CENTRAL TEXAS. A JET STREAM WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF
90 TO 100 KT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 88W WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THE SW
UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E
PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF
90W. THE AREA OF SMOKE COVERS THE S GULF S OF A LINE FROM TAMPA
FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THIS SMOKE PLUME IS DUE TO THE
LARGE NUMBER OF FIRES THAT CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN S OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS NEAR 18N82W IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN BUT STILL COVERS THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AND EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN
UPPER LOW COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N69W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IS N OF 16N BETWEEN 75W-83W AND N
OF 12N E OF 75W THUS LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. WEAK UPPER
FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO DRAW UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THAT AREA AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N W OF 75W TO INLAND
OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. SMOKE REMAINS A CONCERN IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 85W DUE TO THE FIRES OVER HONDURAS AND
THE PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND NW ATLC WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING N OF THE REGION. A JET
STREAM WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDS FROM THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO NEAR 29N60W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 30N W OF 45W
PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE REGION W OF
BERMUDA TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 45W.
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 65W ANCHORED BY
A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 33N28W AND NEAR 30N44W.

$$
WALLACE



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