[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. MIMIC
TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE POSSIBLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE BUT THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL
ROTATION NEAR 7N16W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TURNING IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
12W-14W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH A MID LEVEL ROTATION
NEAR 5N51W IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION
INLAND AS WELL.

..THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N21W 1N34W 3N49W. SEE
TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 00N40W 3N44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 14W-20W...FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
33W-42W...AND FROM 8N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 42W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE GULF TO
ALONG THE N GULF COAST WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE E
US INTO THE NW ATLC AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS N
GEORGIA/ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO CENTRAL TEXAS. A JET
STREAM WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 90 TO 100 KT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 90W WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NE
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THE SW UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING THE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF 89W. THE AREA OF SMOKE NOW COVERS
THE S GULF AND CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY ON THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES S
OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THIS SMOKE PLUME
IS DUE TO THE LARGE NUMBER OF FIRES OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN S OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS NEAR 18N81W COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AND
EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 15N68W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR IS N OF 16N BETWEEN 75W-85W AND N OF 12N E OF 75W THUS
LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL LOW IS INLAND OVER
NICARAGUA AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 75W TO
INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SMOKE REMAINS A
CONCERN IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY ON THE
LAST VISIBLE IMAGES S OF 18N W OF 86W DUE TO THE FIRES OVER
HONDURAS AND THE PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND NW ATLC WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING N OF THE REGION. A JET
STREAM WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDS FROM THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO NEAR 30N61W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 31N W OF 50W
PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 31N68W
ACROSS BERMUDA TO BEYOND 33N62W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE E ATLC N OF 16N E OF 50W.
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 70W ANCHORED BY
A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N24W AND A WEAKER
1022 MB HIGH TO THE W NEAR 31N42W.

$$
WALLACE




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