[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 11N MOVING W 10 KT. A
LOW-AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 11N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE IS DISTORTED AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W S OF 10N MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN THE
WEST COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 81W.

..THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 5N20W 4N30W 2N40W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3S-8N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 23W-26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. AS OF 15Z...THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
28N83W...JUST NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N90W TO
NEAR 19N95W IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. A THIN BAND OF
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS IS OBSERVED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS
FRONT TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF NW OF A LINE FROM VERACRUZ
MEXICO TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. THIS CONVECTION IS MOVING
FAIRLY QUICKLY IN STRONG SWLY FLOW ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH. DRY...STABLE AIR AROUND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE
CARIBBEAN IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN
THE SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SFC TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
HISPANIOLA...AND ACROSS JAMAICA TO NEAR 18N81W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER COLOMBIA ARE MOVING INTO THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 11N AND E OF THE PANAMA CANAL...HOWEVER...DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 19N79W. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN AND
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC. AS OF 15Z...THE
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N73W AND CONTINUES ALONG 29N77W
TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST NEAR MELBOURNE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY N OF 29N. EAST OF THE FRONT...STRONG SW WINDS N OF 28N
WILL WEAKEN TO 20 KT LATE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE RAPIDLY E
AND DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED
INTO THE W ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST... A WEAKER COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N46W AND EXTENDS ALONG
25N50W TO 21N56W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SFC TROUGH OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND UP TO 160 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SFC TROUGH. A LARGE SFC RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB SFC HIGH SOUTH OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ELONGATED OVER THE
TROPICS AROUND 10N IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ.


$$
WADDINGTON






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