[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171034
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 11N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY
SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 11N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE IS DISTORTED AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W S OF 10N MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. NO WAVE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED AND IS NOT INDICATED
BY THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 76W TO 79W.

..THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 5N12W 6N27W 4N41W 4N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG TO SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 14W
ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 4N16W TO 9N15W WITH
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 41W-48W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180/200 NM
OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 21W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS OFF THE SE US COAST OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE JUST W OF JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 27N88W
WHERE IT BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY INTO MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THUS THE SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS WELL N
OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE GULF ARE DOMINATED BY A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN AND ALSO COVERS THE
W ATLC. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INLAND OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE NW GULF BY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM TAMPICO
MEXICO TO HOUSTON TEXAS W OF 95W. OTHERWISE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
W OF THE FRONT WHILE THE SE GULF REMAINS CLOUD FREE.
HOWEVER...SMOKE REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF AS A RESULT OF
FIRES THAT WHERE OVER MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W AND EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THUS LIMITING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EXTENDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...S
HISPANIOLA...AND N JAMAICA TO NEAR 18N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. WESTERLY UPPER FLOW AND THUS HIGH
CLOUDS COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA
ALONG N COLOMBIA AND THE ABC ISLANDS THEN NE OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES JUST S OF GUADELOUPE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N61W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH N OF 22N BETWEEN 40W-53W AND THE
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N46W TO 22N55W
WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO
THE N CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DIPPING S TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF THE CENTRAL
ATLC FRONT WITH A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
33N31W AND THUS FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE ALL THAT ARE PRESENT.

$$
WALLACE





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