[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE
IS FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED WITH VIS IMAGERY AND 09Z QSCAT DATA
SHOWING LOW-LEVEL NE FLOW ACROSS THE ANALYZED AXIS.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY ENHANCING CONVECTION WHICH HAS
INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...SCATTERED MODERATE IN
NATURE...WITHIN 120 NM W AND 180 NM E OF THE AXIS FROM 5N-7N.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N25W 3N40W 4N51W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N
E OF 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
30W-46W AND S OF 1N BETWEEN 34W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES HAS AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT CUTS ACROSS S FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N85W
WHERE IT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE
FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL DEFINED ROPE CLOUD LINE AND
EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR HAS BUILT S
BEHIND THE FRONT...GIVING THE REGION MUCH MORE PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS THAT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE
ASSOCIATED N 15-20 KT WINDS N OF THE FRONT IN THE E GULF HAS
INCREASED SEAS SLIGHTLY TO 6 FT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF BUT LIFT BACK N IN THE
CENTRAL AND W GULF AS THE UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTS E ALLOWING A
MID-UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO GAIN
CONTROL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SPRAWLING MID TO UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WHILE UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE NRN LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING A
VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEP CLOUDINESS/CONVECTION...AND EVEN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD SEEMS FAIRLY THIN. A QSCAT PASS AROUND 11Z SHOWED AN AREA
OF 20 KT TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS NOTED ELSEWHERE. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN ATLC COLD
FRONT DIVES S TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES AND AS A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE TRACKS W...POSSIBLY DRAGGING SOME MOISTURE TO THE SRN
WINDWARDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE LOW PRES SYSTEM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS
PRODUCING COLD AND RAINY CONDITIONS THERE AND WLY WINDS TO GALE
FORCE ON ITS S SIDE W OF THE FRONT...WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM 32N68W TO S FLORIDA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED ALONG THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...LIGHTNING DATA IS REVEALING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE N OF 28N
BETWEEN 65W-70W. ANOTHER PATCH OF ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 74W-76W. THE
LARGE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
PUSHING THE FRONT TOWARD THE SE BAHAMAS AND THE GREATER ANTILLES
BY TUE AND WED.

A 1025 MB SFC HIGH PRES SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 29N31W DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE
TROPICAL BELT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE PATTERN IN THE
SUBTROPICS IS FAIRLY FLAT DUE TO WEAK RIDGING AND INTERRUPTIONS
FROM A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES. THESE SHORTWAVES ARE SUPPORTING A
PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WHICH BOTH REMAIN N OF THE AREA.
THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE MINIMAL. BROAD
RIDGING COVERS THE TROPICS WITH AN EMBEDDED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
NEAR 8N28W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SE AND SW PERIPHERIES OF
THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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