[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 50W-52W IN ASSOCIATION
WITH WAVE. POSITION BASED ON SURFACE WINDS REMAINING NE AT
CAYENNE FRENCH GUIANA WHICH INDICATES THAT WAVE IS STILL
POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE E
CARIBBEAN ON TUE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 6N17W 2N26W 2N36W 3N43W 2N49W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
8W-12W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 14W-16W. ALSO
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM
6N28W 3N34W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 43W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS
OF 09Z...THE FRONT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR 27N82W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 26N90W TURNING STATIONARY TO NEAR 25N95W. A NARROW BAND OF
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND VERY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN DEWPOINTS MARK
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS INLAND MEXICO CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE
GULF W OF 94W. THESE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ROTATING AROUND A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
GULF AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE S GULF WATERS ON TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN 11N-14N ALONG 79W. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS BEING GENERATED BY A COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SPEED CONVERGENCE AND AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW
THROUGH THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS AND N COLOMBIA. THIS IS PROVIDING
ONLY SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA
AND S WINDWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP-LAYERED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE W ATLC. THIS
IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
32N75W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT E OF 72W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM
32N47W SW TO THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT JUST
CLIPS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N BETWEEN 57W-64W. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AND WEAKEN NORTH OF THE AREA.
FARTHER EAST...A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DOMINATES
THE ATLC E OF 55W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS FROM 31N26W 29N28W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE E AND
CENTRAL ATLC ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS FLOWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE.

$$
HUFFMAN




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