[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W AT 09/0600 UTC
SOUTH OF 8N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE
MAY REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON TUESDAY.

...THE ITCZ...

6N10W 4N20W 3N30W 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S51W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 27W AND 32W. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1S TO 2N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 7N EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 20N100W BEYOND 32N95W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVERYWHERE. SURFACE RIDGE FROM 24N70W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 24N89W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM EAST TEXAS NEAR 32N94W TO 30N100W TO 31N103W. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 8N62W TO 8N75W TO 10N84W IN PANAMA.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF 20N63W 18N70W
TO 16N84W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW APPROACHES AND ENTERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE NORTH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 26N74W IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS DEVELOPING NEAR 30N56W...WITH A TROUGH TO 22N57W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
33N33W TO 24N28W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SOUTH
OF 19N60W 20N50W BEYOND 24N20W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N33W TO 27N40W TO 24N51W. A STATIONARY FRONT STARTS AT 24N51W
AND GOES TO 25N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 29N63W. BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN 33W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 53W AND
66W. A RIDGE GOES FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
28N55W TO 27N70W TO 24N89W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE GOES
FROM 20N45W TO 24N33W THROUGH 32N22W.

$$
MT







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