[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W AT 09/0000 UTC
SOUTH OF 8N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 38W AND 41W... AND FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN
41W AND 44W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE MAY ARRIVE AT THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON TUESDAY.

...THE ITCZ...

6N9W 3N20W 4N30W 4N38W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S51W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 7W AND 9W...AND FROM 4N
TO 6N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 7N EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 20N100W BEYOND 32N95W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVERYWHERE. SURFACE RIDGE FROM 24N74W
IN THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS TO 25N87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A STATIONARY FRONT IN TEXAS FROM 32N96W TO 30N100W TO 30N103W.
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 8N62W TO 8N75W TO 10N84W IN PANAMA.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF 20N63W 18N70W
TO 16N84W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW APPROACHES AND ENTERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE NORTH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N73W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 35N28W TO 30N29W TO 23N37W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN 35N28W TO 23N37W RIDGE. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N35W TO 28N40W TO 24N53W. THE STATIONARY FRONT STARTS
AT 24N53W AND GOES TO 25N62W. A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 28N55W.

$$
MT




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