[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 12N MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE
REMAINS WEAK AND IS MOVING OVER SOUTH AMERICA. IT WILL CONTINUE
TO FURTHER WEAKEN. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE NOTED.

AN ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ IS BEGINNING TO
FORM ALONG 26W/27W BETWEEN 2N-7N AND WILL BE INTRODUCED AS A
TROPICAL WAVE ON THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
24W-27W.  SSMI MICROWAVE DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORMING.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N10W 4N16W 4N25W 1N35W INTO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 4N7W TO 1N11W OFF THE LIBERIA COAST.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS LOCATED BETWEEN 1S-3N BETWEEN 24W-27W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN
29W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF W OF 90W WITH AXIS
FROM THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF OUT ACROSS THE
W ATLC WATERS. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED
OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE NE AND
CENTRAL GULF. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 KT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF TODAY WITH GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE W GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA S OF
13N WITH BASE FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA N TO JAMAICA AND E CUBA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS VENEZUELA WITH
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 6N50W IN THE SW ATLC.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AT
THIS TIME. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE PANAMA COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 32N64W TO
HISPANIOLA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 27N79W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND TO 24N80W. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE
N BAHAMA ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N61W AND
EXTENDS SW TO CROOKED ISLAND BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM E OF THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC A 1027 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N38W CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER FROM 12N-32N BETWEEN THE
W AFRICAN COAST TO 56W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
AFRICAN DUST COVERS MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N E OF 60W.

$$
HUFFMAN


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