[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071027
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
REMAINS WEAK AND MOVING OVER SOUTH AMERICA WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN IT FURTHER. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N4W 4N12W 4N22W 1N33W INTO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 3W-8W...WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
FROM 3N24W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W...WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
FROM 3N30W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W AND FROM 3N TO THE
EQUATOR W OF 47W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 6W-13W AND
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 34W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER THE SE US JUST E OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATES
THE AREA RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE GULF THIS
MORNING. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W AND
IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER FLORIDA
DIPPING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 17N FROM THE CENTRAL CUBA TO THE MONA PASSAGE. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE
W TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING W ACROSS VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR DOMINATES MUSH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEING GENERATED ALONG THE COAST
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA TO 10N. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADE
WINDS COVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO GENERATING A
SMALL AREA OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN
78W-87W. OTHERWISE THE AREA REMAINS RATHER CLEAR THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC BETWEEN 50W AND FLORIDA
DIPPING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW EXTENDING ALONG 31N64W TO 25N69W. A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION JUST E OF BERMUDA SW TO 28N73W
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO A 1014 MB LOW
JUST N OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND NEAR 27N78W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING S JUST OFF THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE N COAST OF
CUBA NEAR HAVANA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM
25N71W TO OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N74W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS INDICATED BY LIGHTENING
DATA ARE TO THE E WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N67W TO BEYOND
32N61W WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY N OF 28N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
WITHIN 45 NM OF 24N FROM 62W-67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE N COAST OF
CUBA E OF 77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATE BY A DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
33N42W. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SAHARAN AIR
LAYER TRACKER FROM CIMSS INDICATES THE THAT AFRICAN DUST COVERS
MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N E OF 55W.

$$
WALLACE





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