[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST 10-15
KT.  ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 18W-23W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W TO 1N20W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 30W...TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND 9W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 3S-EQ BETWEEN 44W-47W...AND FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 48W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO S LOUISIANA ALONG 31N87W 29N92W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN
85W-91W.  A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS ALONG 30N94W
27N99W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.  10-15
KT SELY WINDS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF THE SQUALL LINE AND S OF THE COLD
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  A BAND OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE NE GULF N
OF 28N AND E OF 90W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT LINGERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM 19N60W TO 18N65W.  OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 60W-70W.  MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE N COAST OF CUBA E
OF 80W.  ONLY MODERATE TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
COVERS THE AREA.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N70W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N37W
TO 28N40W 22N50W 19N60W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE FRONT.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 24N25W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-80W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N49W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS N OF 22N AND W OF 50W.  A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 40W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE
E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA



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