[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN
18W AND 20W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE IVORY COAST NEAR 5N4W TO 3N10W 1N20W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 30W...TO 1S40W AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
2S45W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 5N EAST OF 5W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SOME CLOUDS ARE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W...
MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
31N69W TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE MIDDLE/LOWER TEXAS COAST.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EASTWARD...PASSING THROUGH 31N94W IN EAST
TEXAS TO 29N98W...BECOMING STATIONARY AND CONTINUING TO 29N100W
IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 26N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND CONTINUES TO 15N65W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 24N50W TO
20N60W AND TO 18N64W IN THE ANEGADA PASSAGE OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 63W
AND 70W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO MOVES
FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W AT THE WESTERN END OF AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N51W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 26N56W TO 15N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N41W TO 24N50W
TO 20N60W...AND 18N64W IN THE ANEGADA PASSAGE OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 31N36W 21N39W 25N46W 19N55W...AND FROM 15N TO 19N
BETWEEN 57W AND 61W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 60W TO AFRICA. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES THROUGH 32N22W TO 26N30W 23N40W TO 20N50W TO 17N62W
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
MT




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